Wednesday, May 15, 2013

US Stock Market - recent stellar performance and what to expect.

If the US stock market would continue to raise as it has risen recently, this would result in the following annualized returns:


  • If it would continue to raise as it has since the start of the year: annualized gain = 58%.
  • If it would continue to raise as it has since April 18 (the last small correction): annualized gain = 170%

In the face of stalling earnings growth and increasingly weak macro data from around the world, it is only a question of time until this train will be derailed. 

Also, here applies the same principle as for other markets. A big part of this upside action is most likely being driven by trading robots, which tend to allocate bigger and bigger positions into low-volatile, rising markets.

Once volatility increases, these positions will be liquidated quickly.



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